Biden’s RTO Policy Hurt Retention—Trump’s Could Decimate It
President Donald Trump’s recent announcement of a full-time, five-day-a-week return-to-office (RTO) mandate for federal employees has sparked heated debates across the nation. Framed as a strategy to reduce the size of the federal workforce and boost efficiency, this decision overlooks a critical consequence: the potential loss of the government’s most experienced and skilled employees. If history is any indication, this sweeping policy could usher in a new wave of resignations that would undermine the very efficiency it seeks to enhance.
We don’t have to speculate blindly about what might happen. Just two years ago, President Joe Biden’s more moderate RTO mandate, which tried to increase the amount of time federal staff worked in the office, triggered a substantial increase in turnover rates among senior and skilled employees. A groundbreaking study conducted by Mark Ma and his colleagues at the University of Pittsburgh, using data from Revelio Labs, provides clear evidence of the damage caused by Biden’s RTO announcement. This research not only quantifies the losses but also offers critical insights into the repercussions of Trump’s far more stringent policy.
Biden’s RTO Policy Hurt Retention
In March 2022, President Biden urged the “vast majority” of federal employees to return to their offices at least 60% of the time as pandemic conditions improved. This hybrid RTO policy, less demanding than Trump’s full-time directive, still caused significant disruption. Turnover rates among senior employees—those ranked as directors, supervisors, or higher—spiked by 26% following the announcement. These individuals, equipped with decades of institutional knowledge and leadership expertise, found themselves more likely to exit federal employment for opportunities in the private sector, where remote work flexibility remains a highly valued norm.
Similarly, the impact on highly skilled employees was profound. Those with advanced qualifications and specialized abilities experienced a 32% increase in turnover. These individuals, who often possess the most sought-after skills in technology, science, and management, represent the intellectual and operational core of federal agencies. Their departure has left many departments struggling to maintain efficiency and continuity in their operations.
This exodus was not an isolated trend. Across federal agencies, including key departments like Defense, Health and Human Services, and Homeland Security, the data consistently pointed to a troubling reality: employees with the most to contribute to the public sector were the most likely to leave when faced with an inflexible return-to-office policy.
The impact of Biden’s RTO policy is supported not only by the Pittsburgh study but also by other authoritative sources. The Government Accountability Office (GAO), in a November 2024 report, evaluated four federal agencies—Farm Service Agency (FSA), the IRS, U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS), and the Veterans Benefits Administration (VBA)—to examine the effects of telework policies on recruitment, retention, and performance. The findings are illuminating.
Agencies with robust telework policies, such as VBA, which reported telework at 66% of total hours worked, experienced significant advantages. Telework helped broaden the IRS’s talent pool, enabling the agency to attract customer service representatives from regions far beyond its physical office locations. Similarly, USCIS reported a significant boost in applicant interest for positions offering telework, demonstrating its appeal to prospective employees.
In contrast, agencies with minimal telework opportunities, such as the Farm Service Agency (where only 11% of hours were teleworked), faced pronounced recruitment and retention difficulties. FSA officials attributed these challenges, in part, to restricted telework availability. While compensation and workload pressures were also cited as factors, the lack of flexibility in telework options emerged as a clear deterrent to attracting and retaining top talent. These findings align closely with the turnover data from Biden’s RTO policy, underscoring the risks of rigid in-office mandates.
Telework: A Proven Tool for Productivity and Satisfaction
Further support for telework as a retention and productivity tool comes from the Office of Personnel Management (OPM). In its report, OPM found that 72% of federal supervisors believe telework has either maintained or improved employee productivity. Additionally, 84% of federal employees with telework opportunities reported higher job satisfaction, citing improved work-life balance as a primary factor. The Federal Employee Viewpoint Survey further confirmed these trends, with 78% of respondents agreeing that telework positively contributes to their work-life integration. These statistics not only validate the effectiveness of telework but also highlight its critical role in retaining high-performing employees.
The broader implications of these findings are clear: when federal agencies offer flexible work options, they strengthen their ability to attract and retain talent while maintaining productivity. Conversely, mandating a full-time return to the office, as Trump’s policy proposes, is likely to reverse these gains, driving away employees who prioritize flexibility and work-life balance.
The Implications of Trump’s Full-Time RTO Mandate
If Biden’s hybrid model caused such a sharp rise in turnover, Trump’s full-time RTO mandate is poised to accelerate the brain drain on an unprecedented scale. Senior employees, already disproportionately affected by RTO requirements, are likely to leave in droves. These individuals often have extensive professional networks and the financial stability to transition to private-sector roles that offer remote or hybrid work arrangements. Similarly, skilled employees, who were 32% more likely to quit under Biden’s policy, are now presented with an even starker choice: abandon the flexibility they value or abandon their federal careers.The consequences of this talent loss will reverberate far beyond individual agencies. Federal departments rely on their senior and skilled workforce to navigate complex challenges, implement policies, and deliver services efficiently. Losing these employees en masse risks not only operational disruption but also a decline in public trust, as citizens experience delays and inefficiencies in essential services. Trump’s mandate, while aimed at reducing the federal workforce, risks creating a crisis that will cost far more than it saves.
Key Take-Away
The evidence is clear: Biden’s RTO policy hurt retention, with senior and skilled federal employees leaving in droves. Trump’s stricter mandate is poised to worsen the brain drain, undermining efficiency and public service quality instead of… Share on XImage credit: Sora Shimazaki/pexels
Dr. Gleb Tsipursky was named “Office Whisperer” by The New York Times for helping leaders overcome frustrations with hybrid work and Generative AI. He serves as the CEO of the future-of-work consultancy Disaster Avoidance Experts. Dr. Gleb wrote seven best-selling books, and his two most recent ones are Returning to the Office and Leading Hybrid and Remote Teams and ChatGPT for Thought Leaders and Content Creators: Unlocking the Potential of Generative AI for Innovative and Effective Content Creation. His cutting-edge thought leadership was featured in over 650 articles and 550 interviews in Harvard Business Review, Inc. Magazine, USA Today, CBS News, Fox News, Time, Business Insider, Fortune, The New York Times, and elsewhere. His writing was translated into Chinese, Spanish, Russian, Polish, Korean, French, Vietnamese, German, and other languages. His expertise comes from over 20 years of consulting, coaching, and speaking and training for Fortune 500 companies from Aflac to Xerox. It also comes from over 15 years in academia as a behavioral scientist, with 8 years as a lecturer at UNC-Chapel Hill and 7 years as a professor at Ohio State. A proud Ukrainian American, Dr. Gleb lives in Columbus, Ohio.